Temperature and CO2 interactively drive shifts in the compositional and functional structure of peatland protist communities.

Microbes affect the global carbon cycle that influences climate change and are in turn influenced by environmental change. Here, we use data from a long-term whole-ecosystem warming experiment at a boreal peatland to answer how temperature and CO2 jointly influence communities of abundant, diverse, yet poorly understood, non-fungi microbial Eukaryotes (protists). These microbes influence ecosystem function directly through photosynthesis and respiration, and indirectly, through predation on decomposers (bacteria and fungi). Using a combination of high-throughput fluid imaging and 18S amplicon sequencing, we report large climate-induced, community-wide shifts in the community functional composition of these microbes (size, shape, and metabolism) that could alter overall function in peatlands. Importantly, we demonstrate a taxonomic convergence but a functional divergence in response to warming and elevated CO2 with most environmental responses being contingent on organismal size: warming effects on functional composition are reversed by elevated CO2 and amplified in larger microbes but not smaller ones. These findings show how the interactive effects of warming and rising CO2 levels could alter the structure and function of peatland microbial food webs-a fragile ecosystem that stores upwards of 25% of all terrestrial carbon and is increasingly threatened by human exploitation.

Limits to reproduction and seed size-number trade-offs that shape forest dominance and future recovery.

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence.

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects.

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.